Raymond Barrett

Sunday Business Post
By Raymond Barrett

A coordinated series of attacks against hotels used by foreign journalists and Iraqi politicians left nearly 40 people dead in Baghdad last week. Gunmen and suicide bombers targeted three hotels in and around the heavily fortified green zone, which is home to both the US embassy and the Iraqi parliament.

Although an al-Qaeda affiliate known as the Islamic State of Iraq claimed responsibility for the blasts, such bombings are another indicator of just how the insurgency in the country has evolved since the US added an extra 20,000 troops to the capital region and surrounding provinces in 2007.

Over the last year, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) has preferred to use large car bombs against ‘soft’ civilian targets, such as hotels and government ministries.

Nearly 130 people were killed in one day during a series of attacks in December. The most recent attacks came in the same week as the execution of Ali Hassan al Majid.

A senior figure in the regime of Saddam Hussein, al-Majid had been linked to a number of atrocities. Known as ‘Chemical Ali’, he was found guilty of crimes against humanity and genocide – the most infamous crime being the gassing of 5,000 civilians in the Kurdish town of Halabja in northern Iraq in 1988.

Since the US military adopted a new strategy of coopting former Sunni insurgents into the Iraqi security establishment through the establishment of ‘Awakening Councils’, attacks against coalition soldiers have dropped significantly. Last year, coalition forces suffered a total of 149 fatalities, compared with around 900 in 2007.

Ranj Alaaldin, an Iraq specialist at the London School of Economics, told The Sunday Business Post that ‘‘the insurgency, comprising a combination of AQI and Ba’athist/ Sunni extremists, is morphing in accordance with the changing realities on the ground’’.

The most urgent ‘‘reality on the ground’’ is the withdrawal of US troops, scheduled to take place in 2011 and 2012.While Iraqi prime minister Nouri al Maliki has insisted publicly that his Shi’ite-led government is capable of maintaining security, fear of renewed sectarian violence remains.

Despite a decrease in civilian casualties in recent months, Alaaldin said he expected even more attacks on government institutions from AQI, ahead of a general election in March.

‘‘As the state becomes more assertive, [AQI will] respond by deploying sporadic, high casualty, high-profile mass terror attacks. These attacks will aim at undermining the government, particularly in the run-up to the elections and as US troops begin to withdraw,” he said.