Raymond Barrett

Haaretz
By Raymond Barrett

As the shock waves from the assassination in Dubai of Hamas commander Mahmoud al-Mabhouh continue to resonate, the long-term implications of the Mossad’s (alleged) Gulf sojourn are becoming clear: Israel’s dual citizens are now no longer welcome in Shangri-la and must look elsewhere if they want to sunbathe on air-conditioned beaches or hit the ski slopes amid the ocher sands of the Arabian Desert.

While the murder operation itself was a rip-roaring success, it constituted what was essentially a diplomatic “middle finger” to Dubai. With few regional friends, those responsible for foreign policy in Israel have apparently sent a rather crude message of disengagement to those in the Arab world who have sought rapprochement with the “Zionist entity.”

Despite the convenience of the narrative, the Arabian Peninsula is not a single seething agglutination of rabid anti-Israeli sentiment. There have been a number of high-profile (if isolated) interactions with the seven-member federation of the United Arab Emirates, to which Dubai belongs. Israel’s infrastructures minister, Uzi Landau, attended a conference on renewable energy in the UAE capital Abu Dhabi in January, while tennis players Andy Ram and more recently Shahar Peer have competed in Dubai. More importantly, a number of long-term, if less publicized, relationships have developed behind the scenes over the last decade.

Given Dubai’s aspiration to be the global capital of all things “bling,” it’s fitting that diamonds brought about its engagement with Israel over the past decade. Striving to become a major player in the global diamond trade, the emirate sought to court the influential Johannesburg-Antwerp-Tel Aviv-New York gemstone nexus, and there was no room for the anti-Zionist rhetoric beloved of other regional governments. So it came to pass that Jewish and Israeli businessmen began to attend trade conferences and open luxury hotels in the gilded Gulf city-state.

This willingness to forgo political rancor for economic accord embodied the much-trumpeted vision of Dubai’s ruler, Sheikh Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum, who realizes there is little profit to be made in Middle East politics. In this context, Israeli involvement in this killing could be seen as a violation of trust, the snubbing of an outstretched hand of friendship.

Such a slight is unlikely to be forgotten soon, though others insist Dubai is just shedding crocodile tears of outrage, given its past readiness to accommodate those who operate in the shadows of the global economy.

Dubai has long been a freewheeling haven for arms dealers and sanctions busters: Speculation is that Mabhouh was in town specifically to organize an Iranian arms shipment to Hamas. Iran certainly has a record in this regard as it deals (and banks) with the rest of the world through Dubai. Tehran also acquired elements of its current nuclear capabilities by way of Dubai, supplied by the network organized by A.Q. Khan, the father of Pakistan’s atomic bomb. And the 20 or so supposed Mossad agents identified by the Dubai authorities were certainly not the first people to enter Dubai on “questionable” passports – nor will they be the last.

Historically, in fact, questionable characters have found Dubai to be a welcoming center of operations. Viktor Bout, the notorious arms dealer dubbed the “Merchant of Death,” transported Taliban gold, and Liberia-bound armaments paid for with conflict diamonds, out of neighboring Sharjah while banking in Dubai. Furthermore, Dawood Ibrahim – alleged king of the Mumbai underworld – found a welcoming sanctuary there until supposed links to the Pakistani intelligence services, Al-Qaida and the 1993 Mumbai train bombings caused him to outstay his welcome.

Just last year a Chechen warlord was gunned down in the parking garage of a luxury apartment complex in Dubai, as part of an ongoing power struggle for control of the former Soviet republic.

Given that the collapse of its much-hyped property market has made Dubai even more dependent on welcoming all forms of trade, perhaps the authorities will allow Israelis to return once things cool off. In the interim, commentators are still divided over whether the assassination can be designated a success.

When engaging an enemy, military commanders speak of tactical, operational and strategic objectives. While there is little doubt that the assassination was a tactical and operational success, it cannot, and should not, be deemed a strategic one, particularly if the long-term objective of Israel’s leaders is to normalize relations with the rest of the Arab world.

Mabhouh is certainly another notch on Israel’s bedpost – another in a long line of conquests that includes Abu Jihad, Sheikh Ahmed Yassin and Imad Mughniyeh; sadly, he will not be the last. For that, Israel needs a different set of partners, Arab states prepared to embrace the reality of Israel, outside of the historical paradigm of opposition, confrontation and violence.

Dubai had the potential to be a bridge of engagement, but it seems that this government has chosen ostrich diplomacy instead: ignoring rather than engaging with the reality that surrounds it. Along with the actual wall it has built on the West Bank, Israel has now erected a metaphorical “wall of disengagement” with one of the few Arab entities willing to engage with it at all.

Raymond Barrett is an Irish writer and journalist specializing in the Middle East. He is the author of the recently published book “Dubai Dreams: Inside the Kingdom of Bling” (Nicholas Brealey).